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M9490445.TXT
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1994-09-19
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Document 0445
DOCN M9490445
TI [Short-term prediction of cases of AIDS in Catalonia (1991-1994)]
DT 9411
AU Vall Mayans M; Zunzunegui Pastor MV; Casabona Barbara J; Departamento de
Sanidad y Seguridad Social, Generalitat de; Catalunya, Barcelona.
SO Gac Sanit. 1994 Jan-Feb;8(40):3-10. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
MED/94333992
AB Predicting AIDS incidence is a useful strategy for health service
planning and for the design of preventive and control programmes. The
different predictive mathematical models of AIDS can be classified in
simple and complex, according to the assumptions used. The present study
presents the prediction of the minimum AIDS incidence in Catalonia for
the period 1991-94 by means of three simple mathematical models. The
models that have been compared are the projection method of Chin and
Lwanga, the retroprojection method of Brookmeyer and Gail, and the
extrapolation method of Cox and Medley. Baseline information about AIDS
cases comes from the AIDS Registry of the Generalitat of Catalonia. In a
comparable manner, the three methods point out an increase of AIDS
incidence until 1994, varying from 1160 to 1733 new cases in that year
depending on the method used. We conclude that it will be necessary to
increase the provision of health, social and preventive resources
against AIDS in Catalonia in the coming years.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL
Comparative Study English Abstract Female Forecasting Human HIV
Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL Incidence Male Models,
Theoretical Prevalence Spain/EPIDEMIOLOGY JOURNAL ARTICLE
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).